How will China and Japan get along in the future?
My roommate Ian sent me this piece that is rather prescient in the face of all the Asian economic growth that has been taking place of late. The China-Japan dynamic is something interesting to watch as is the China-Taiwan relationship. The future holds some interesting times and the Asian countries will continue to play a more integral part in the future of the US and the global economy.
Japan does not want to form a situation of competition with China or be put in a position where it has to make a choice. This doesn't mean it can stand aloof. For example, on the question regarding accession into the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation In Southeast Asia, Japan's reaction is rather complicated: It does not want to give others an impression of its competition with China, neither does it want to distance itself too far from ASEAN, it also hopes that the ASEAN may contain China. This kind of psyche means: I don't want to take the lead neither do I want you to. Instinctively Japan doesn't hope China to dominate East Asian affairs while at the same time it doesn't show up to compete with China. Former Japanese Prime Minister Makasone Yasuhiro said "I'm absolutely not advocating that Japan should strive to compete with China. I think this idea is rather foolish. We should avoid doing so". Why? What is Japan waiting for? Is it waiting for a substantive change in China-US relations?
Some Japanese politicians and scholars believe that 2015 will be the year when qualitative change will take place in China-US relations. By then China's military strength would be on a par with that of the United States. There would be three possible situations in China-US relationship: confrontation, alliance or cold war. Japan believes that the first two possibilities are very unlikely. The most possible situation in Sino-US ties would be one of interdependence under a cold war state. Japan must now consider how to handle relationship with China under a Sino-US cold war state.
My roommate Ian sent me this piece that is rather prescient in the face of all the Asian economic growth that has been taking place of late. The China-Japan dynamic is something interesting to watch as is the China-Taiwan relationship. The future holds some interesting times and the Asian countries will continue to play a more integral part in the future of the US and the global economy.
Japan does not want to form a situation of competition with China or be put in a position where it has to make a choice. This doesn't mean it can stand aloof. For example, on the question regarding accession into the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation In Southeast Asia, Japan's reaction is rather complicated: It does not want to give others an impression of its competition with China, neither does it want to distance itself too far from ASEAN, it also hopes that the ASEAN may contain China. This kind of psyche means: I don't want to take the lead neither do I want you to. Instinctively Japan doesn't hope China to dominate East Asian affairs while at the same time it doesn't show up to compete with China. Former Japanese Prime Minister Makasone Yasuhiro said "I'm absolutely not advocating that Japan should strive to compete with China. I think this idea is rather foolish. We should avoid doing so". Why? What is Japan waiting for? Is it waiting for a substantive change in China-US relations?
Some Japanese politicians and scholars believe that 2015 will be the year when qualitative change will take place in China-US relations. By then China's military strength would be on a par with that of the United States. There would be three possible situations in China-US relationship: confrontation, alliance or cold war. Japan believes that the first two possibilities are very unlikely. The most possible situation in Sino-US ties would be one of interdependence under a cold war state. Japan must now consider how to handle relationship with China under a Sino-US cold war state.
posted by Champion at 3:10 PM
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