From my brother's im away message:

The movie of my life, called "The Story of a Legend." Starring: Owen Wilson as Colin Champ, John Lequizamo as Raymond Montoya, Benicio Del Toro as Cesar Villareal. Brad Pitt as Colin's friend Kai and the guy from Office Space as Devang Kothari. Colin's brother, Christian, is played by Vince Vaughn, though he had to use steroids for the movie (as did Owen Wilson). Colin's beautiful girlfriend is played by Catherine Zeta-Jones and his friend Sammy Sinno is played by Ben Stiller (on Mag-10). AT is played by Don Cheadle (also on steroids but may be replaced by Tyson Beckford). Special guest appearance by Hines Ward and Jet Li (for the big fight scene) and the girl from Fast and the Furious as Colin's younger sister, Chelsey. Directed by Stephen Sodenburg and up for 3 Oscars.

From credit bubble bulletin, February 19 – Washington Post (Jonathan Weisman): “President Bush will sign legislation this week setting a 2003 budget that raises federal spending by 7.8 percent over last year, capping a remarkable two years in which the federal budget increased by 22 percent. Although Bush has made controlling spending a recurring theme in recent months, the $791.5 billion spending bill for 2003 that he plans to approve by Thursday night will be one for the record books. The 2003 rate of discretionary spending increases -- the part of the budget subject to Congress’s annual oversight - will be the second-fastest since 1985. It is topped only by the 2002 increase… The government has not experienced a two-year leap in spending of this magnitude since expenditures jumped 24.5 percent between 1976 and 1978. ‘We have a long way to go to, quote, rein things in,’ said G. William Hagland, budget adviser to Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist.”

Stop spending my money please.

Group think of the day along with co-worker Steve ...

"Being the bear (we both are super bearish on the economy and the stock market) is a lot of fun, until you realize what happens if all of your bearishness becomes reality."

With the bear mantra in mind check out these articles...

Mambo Guru writes some powerful stuff today. I have taken out some of my favorite parts, but you really need to read the entire thing to appreciate it.

Osama is back in the news, exhorting the faithful to murder the Great Satan, which is, oddly enough, you and me. I never actually felt particularly satanic, but I always had a sneaking suspicion about my wife's family, but don't tell them I said so, because you know how they get. Probably put a spell on me or something.

But killing us? How old-fashioned! If he really wanted some modern action, he would get all the faithful to buy put options on every American security they own, then sell every security they own, have the money from the sales deposited into American banks, close out the in-the-money put options (which rose when the massive sales collapsed asset prices), and then have the faithful go to the banks and demand it all in a huge, glorious cash withdrawal.

Conceivably, such a run on the banks could crash the banking system and destroy us all without firing a shot. Of course, Bush would merely sic Janet Reno on them, who would happily kill them all and slap a little asset forfeiture action on them, so maybe the plan isn't such a hot one after all.

- The Bush tax plan is being assailed as a sop to the rich. The idea is that the rich would not use this extra after-tax money to do anything that will benefit America. So I guess the rich ARE different from the rest of us: they get to keep more of their money but they don't do anything with it! They probably don't even cash the check! The money, I guess, will just stay in a desk drawer or under the mattresses of the rich. Wow! I never knew this! I mean, I see on TV the houses and lifestyles of the rich and famous, but I never even DREAMED that they do not spend money! Even when it is handed to them!

On the other hand, so the theory goes, the poor would take that tax-cut money and buy stuff, and this consumption would benefit America. And what, exactly, would the poor buy? Stuff imported from foreign places that actually make stuff, adding to the trade deficit? The extension of this scenario is that the foreigners who make the stuff that the poor would buy would take the money and do something that would benefit America. Assuming that they aren't rich, I suppose, for as we just learned, the rich do not spend or invest money.

That the poor could actually make use of some money can be instantly deduced from the notion that they are poor, and they are poor because they have no money, and if they had some money then they would not be poor anymore. Unless they spent the money to buy stuff. And then they would be poor again. And the rich, who own the means of production and the productive assets that produce the stuff that the poor buy, would end up with the money. And because we now know that the rich do not spend the money they get, how will any of this benefit America?

And the poor will not only be poor again, but poorer still, as the tax-cuts financed by deficits, which are in turn financed by the execrable Fed creating money out of the proverbial thin air, automatically reduces the buying power of the few dollars that the poor can manage to scrape up. So, at the end of the day, and then every day for the rest of their lives, the poor are poorer, because from that moment on they will pay higher and higher prices for the few things that they can still buy, because all of that monetary inflation HAS to filter through to final prices.

And the Democrats champion themselves as the benefactors of the poor? Hahahaha! They are the ones who are destroying the poor!

The Daily Reckoning offered up this scrumptious diatribe on the "housing bubble".


"After a year of slowly moderating price increases, the cost of a home is shooting back up," USAToday replies. "The median home price in the U.S. rose at an annual rate of 8.8% to $161,600 in the 4th quarter last year. That's the biggest quarter-over-quarter increase reported since 1981. And the upward push on prices is widespread: 39 metro areas registered double-digit price growth for the quarter, triple the number of metros with such increases in 1999."

"The big jump reflects the explosive mix of tight supplies of homes for sale and mortgage interest rates below 6%, the lowest in four decades," David Lereah, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, told McPaper.

We Daily Reckoneers have noted on occasion that throughout history, as one bubble deflates, investor fervor is often directly transferred to a new asset class...most notably real estate. With the Fed locked in low rates for a long- time, we suspect the "housing bubble" every one is so keen to talk about may have not even begun.

I have a couple other like the one on inflation and the devaluation of the dollar, one on businesses basically telling Greenspan he is full of beans by blaming the coming war with holding up the economy and an article on the increased debt of the American consumer. Oh yeah and Bush's budget raises spending 7.8% from last year and 22% from last year in 04. What a joke. Did I mention yet that the government also needs to increase their borrowing ceiling because they are smack up against. Can you imagine if they would default? I think that is enough good news for one day. At least I went long some gold today in the form of Newmont Mining. Anyone know any good commidity funds? It is time to prepare for inflation.

Interesting post by Paul Graham on why nerds are unpopular that then goes on to berate the current school system and states (the OBVIOUS regardless of what people want to believe) that things need to change. I defintely feel some parts of this article especially because I always felt that high school was a complete waste of my time (then again it was). I can only think of all my good tax dollars that go to fund these debacles of schools...

How would you fix the broken system? That's easy enough to answer in the abstract. The problem is that teenage kids have no purpose. So give them a purpose. But how?
I don't think it would work to turn them back into apprentices. Adults in past times didn't have teenagers as apprentices because it made the kids' lives meaningful. They did it because it made economic sense. And it just doesn't anymore. Like mothers, teenagers have been left high and dry by the receding waters of specialization.
The way to deal with problems created by specialization is probably not to resist it, but to use it. Specialization is as pervasive and irresistible as wind. If you want to go in the other direction, tack.
The solution, whatever it turns out to be, may involve substantial changes. We take the current form of school for granted, but it is a fairly recent invention by historical standards. It's not something we should be afraid to tinker with.
Perhaps the answer already exists. There are a lot of schools in the world. Perhaps one has solved this problem. Certainly there are some where the problem is less acute than others.
Within America, one of the most obvious differences between the better and worse schools will be money. But I don't think money is the reason the better schools are better; I think it's that the richer communities respect learning more. If you had given my high school twice as much money, it wouldn't have changed a thing. It was not because books were too expensive that they worshipped football.
Whatever the solution is, nothing is likely to happen till adults realize there is a problem. The adults who may realize this first are the ones who were themselves nerds in school. Do you want your kids to be as unhappy in eighth grade as you were? I wouldn't. Well, then, is there anything we can do to fix things? Almost certainly. There is nothing inevitable about the current system. It has come about mostly by default.
Adults, though, are busy. Showing up for school plays is one thing. Taking on the educational bureaucracy is another. Perhaps a few will have the energy to try to change things. I suspect the hardest part is realizing that you can.i>

Samizdata is at it again. This time with a post on why things will not end with Iraq and why this is not a bad thing.

Ah, the irony of it. The idea of 9/11 was that it would bring the Great Satan to its knees. Now it looks as if this attack, breaking the Machiavelli rule that if you attack your enemy you had better be in a position then to finish him off, is actually going to result in the Great Satan becoming a lot stronger. By launching that astonishing assault, the Islamofascists have turned the world into a place that the USA now feels it has to control far more completely than it ever has before, in sheer self defence, and in particular it has turned the Muslim world into something that the USA is now determined to plunged into the middle of and severely re-arrange.


The best part though is his ending which I will edit slightly.

But as it is: go Uncle Sam. And then keep on going. Just don't f--k up.

This is so hysterical. Got it via instapundit. Basically this guy Evan went to the New York war protest and interviewed the participants. Needless to say, if they were running things not much would get done and they have no idea on how to solve the Iraq dilemma. I am still laughing at these cats....

Great T-Mag column on the T-man of the year, ASU grad Pat Tillman. This guy is a huge inspiration and a true hero. What a bad ass.

In June 2002, 25-year-old starting safety Pat Tillman, at the height of his physical abilities and with an impressive NFL career still ahead of him, turned down a 3-year, $3.6 million contract with the Arizona Cardinals to pursue a career in the U.S. Army.

Some people shook their heads in disbelief, wondering why a young man would turn down an opportunity to make so much money. But for Tillman, money always was secondary to loyalty. Two years earlier, he declined a $9 million contract offer from the St. Louis Rams, a team much more successful on the field than Tillman’s Cardinals. His only statement? Tillman said he was happy where he was. This latest career move is a continuation of that same sense of loyalty — this time, to his country instead of his team.

Tillman’s choice came at a time when battles were raging in Afghanistan and war with Iraq was looming on the horizon. With his sights set on joining the Army Rangers, combat is almost certainly in his future. So why would a young man with a future of wealth and fame, not to mention a new wife, put his life at risk? He won’t say. In classic T-Man fashion, Pat Tillman doesn’t feel the need to justify his choices to the public — he refuses interviews and has sworn his family to media silence.

Thanks for the bday wishes that I received yesterday...

Krugman writes in the NY Times about the difference between the US media and Europe...Do people really take this guy seriously?


There are two possible explanations for the great trans-Atlantic media divide. One is that European media have a pervasive anti-American bias that leads them to distort the news, even in countries like the U.K. where the leaders of both major parties are pro-Bush and support an attack on Iraq. The other is that some U.S. media outlets — operating in an environment in which anyone who questions the administration's foreign policy is accused of being unpatriotic — have taken it as their assignment to sell the war, not to present a mix of information that might call the justification for war into question.

FT piece on what would happenif inflation were to hit Japan.

Japan and its weary investors have got used to year upon year of falling prices and virtually zero interest rates. So strange has the investment climate become that banks have recently taken to lending money to other banks at negative interest rates, literally paying them for the privilege of holding on to cash overnight.

Peter Tasker of Arcus Investment, a hedge fund, is mystified by the resilience of the bond market. "The bond market must fall if the Japanese economy recovers and normalises, maybe even if it doesn't," he says. "The bond yield is far lower than in any phase of human history, including the 1930s and the deflation of the 1880s."

As sure as eggs are eggs, says Mr Tasker, if the market becomes convinced that deflation can be halted, equities will rise and bonds will fall. Equities have a long way to recover. Just to get back to where they were when Mr Koizumi came to office in 2001, promising radical surgery and fiscal consolidation, the Nikkei 225 average would need to rise 70 per cent. At around 8,500, close to 20-year lows, the Nikkei is worth less than a fifth of its 1989 bubble high.

Ouch and we think we have problems...

James Grant, from Grant's Interest Rate Observor, comes out swinging for gold in this article he did for Forbes.

Great post by Liberatrian Samizdata with pictures of what the anti-war movement is protecting.

Thomas Sowell, whose book "Knowledge and Decisions" I just picked up from the library, offers some random thoughts.


"A lot of what is called "public service" consists of making hoops for other people to jump through. It is a great career for those who cannot feel fulfilled unless they are telling other people what to do.

Everything depends on what you are used to. There is a story about a man from Los Angeles who went up to a mountaintop, took a deep breath of the clear fresh air and said: "What's that funny smell?"

The end of the Cold War now reveals that many on the far left who were thought of as pro-Communist were in fact anti-American -- as they have remained, even as our enemies have changed. "

It's your birthday....It's your birthday....yep 25 today. Wow, starting to feel old....MJ is celebrating too, though he is hitting 40. Kobe is hitting for 40 nightly, but he is only 24. I have no idea what that has to do with the previous comments, but man that guy is on fire.

Back in the days when I was young I'm not a kid anymore
But some days I sit and wish I was a kid again
I miss those days, and so I pout like a grown jerk
Wishin all I had to do now, was finish homework
It's true, you don't realize really what you got til it's gone
and I'm not, gonna sing another sad song, but
Sometimes I do sit and reminesce then
Think about the years I was raised, back in the days